5 big lines of
Tyre profession: Drop
< xml:namespace prefix=st1 ns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"/>< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=6 month=2 year=2008>2008Year2Month6Day< chsdate/>, American Department of Commerce issues to cut result for Chinese project tyre anti-dumping investigation beginning: The American preliminary ruling Chinese non highway project tyre of Department of Commerce has dumping , is levied for Chinese enterprise in average24.75%Tariff(Qian the dumping16.35%). Another beginning135Day issues
For the project which is puting export
Since in recent years along with the fast development of world project mechanical profession, project fetus develops fast. Since domestic and international tyre price still has discrepancy, Chinese tyre has the higher advantage of cost performance , is still having considerable competitiveness on international market , the tyre of our country exports in large quantities. Under this background, America has enacted the beginning for Chinese project fetus to cut result , this for some domestic project fetuses which is puting export America above everything else enterprise has certain influence. But consider the project fetus of the present export of our country so as oblique hand over the work Cheng Tai mainly, also oblique hand over the work the use of Cheng Tai in American market quantity is limited, for project oblique deliver the influence of fetus enterprise is limited.
At the same time, the enterprise of our
The anti-dumping pressure of other countries
Since lifetime, Venezuela and the capitals2005End of the year is begun , Mexico, India and Australia have initiated anti-dumping investigation in succession for the export tyre of our country, now, the tyre profession of our country has become world, suffer the one of anti-dumping profession with highest frequency and the most frequency in trade. This anti-dumping of America is another example only, other countries also possible the future mentions anti-dumping for China.
銆€銆€6Year, South Africa as original produce since or import is from the passenger car tyre of China , light card tyre and heavy card tyre anti-dumping investigation has made end to cut , do not levy anti-dumping tax for having Chinese tyre enterprise. It is the first time that Chinese tyre profession has gotten victory in international trading dispute.
Chinese tyre enterprise does not yield only while facing anti-dumping, learning South African anti-dumping wins the lawsuit experience in, so as Xiang Xie nominal, joint major enterprise carry out nondestructive harmful counterplea, emphasize anti-dumping should tell skill, will take the initiative is effective to get better result.
Facing these pressures, tyre enterprise needs are dealt with actively, one is the adjustment structure of export product, make tyre export from quantity type to technology type and benefit type change; 2 is the relevant enterprise joint positive anti-dumping investigation of reply foreign countries , avoids to cause larger economic losses; 3 is reinforced autonomous innovation, increase the intensity of research and development of product , set up autonomous brand , promote product quality completely , strengthen the market competitive ability of the tyre domestic constantly.
Drop behind demand tyre"Recommend"Grade
Is benefited in the development of project mechanical profession, when other kinds oblique deliver fetus quilt for noon melt tyre replacement, the condition that market withers constantly takes off , project oblique deliver fetus to still maintain high speed increase, do not but come project fetus son noon the tendency that melts is hard to also worsen. It does not be gone to that now, the son of the project fetus of our country melts in noon to lead10%, western etc.70%, load fetus son noon the process that melts also tells us, once the son of project fetus melts in noon to begin to start, is all right before be quick , and brings plenty of market replacing spaces.
Since domestic project fetus the state that drops behind demand is always continuing , the project fetus of good product quality can when the digestion of home market, so as the domestic major project that includes wind supernatural stock oblique deliver viviparous produce enterprise already fully load production, its project fetus supply quantity can not still satisfy the requirement of project mechanical enterprise and tyre dealer.
Now, wind supernatural stock26.5% controls2.510/It will build if the15The project son of 10 thousand
The profession of Recommend3Share
When catalytic
Environmental protection
State Environmental< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=25 month=2 year=2008>2008Year2Month25Day< chsdate/>Formally issue " the guidance opinion about strengthening the superintendency work of stock company of environmental protection". " this opinion " reveal system with the check system and environmental message of stock company of environmental protection, is key, requirement as is engaged in cement13The company of kind of heavy pollutive profession applies for first hair on the market or again financing, must carry out the inspection of environmental protection according to the stipulation of environmental protection central. Do not get the check opinion of environmental protection, will not accept application.
" this opinion " is helpful
This "opinion" issue will increase cement profession to include technical reformation and energy saving fall consume etc. in a series of cost expense, play the part of positive role for restraining the excessive expansion of cement profession.2007In year, new-type55%Above, " this opinion " will drive forward cement profession further to fall behind to produce can elimination, accelerate the structural adjustment of profession , at the same time realize profession energy saving to fall to consume.
The advantage enterprise of environmental protection will be benefited greatly: Along with the related policy of environmental protection enact constantly, we think that in cement profession, the enterprise that has the advantage of environmental protection will be benefited greatly, sharing to fall behind produce can quit bring greater produce can space. At the same time, "opinion" points out the market means of utilize maturation, including realizing the restriction for pollutive enterprise through the two aspects of indirect financing and direct financing. For the cement profession of capital dense type, this will increase the fund burden of pollutive enterprise greatly, is opposite, such as Ji the advantage enterprises of environmental protection such as eastern cement and China new cement will be benefited greatly.
Profession prosperous"Increasing"Grade:
We think2008In year, profession structural adjustment is deepened as well as taking over the activism of reshuffle will be helpful for profession supply-demand relationship to good development, profession concentrates degree continued raising, at the same time cause cement profession competitive pattern from low price competition transform the competition of fight regional control force into , the steady and profession prosperity that is helpful for regional price period is gently. We keep still, is for profession"Increasing"Investment grade."Strong person"Strategy, key recommendation
Chemical2Monthly magazine:
Investment is grading and2-3Annual tendency8The higher prosperous degree of year is neutral view for petroleum chemical engineering profession. Maintaining cloud day to melt buy to enter to grade , maintain Sichuan beautiful plentiful, China Lu Heng to rise , Hubei is suitable , willow melts the companies such as stock, the potash fertilizer of salt lake and 6 country chemical engineerings increase hold to grade. Increasing hold the Shandong sea etc. kind of stock company of soda ash.
It is crucial to suppose: The price of product oil goes up tune or conform the hard realization in short period; The international bull market of agricultural product; The profession of soda ash produces can extend major concentration when9Year.
Have other the2Month production operation2Month price same increase fast than appearance, ring increases than little. In which crude oil, chemical fertilizer and grass sweet Lin etc. product price extends continuity strong tendency, organic silicon process early stage after is declining considerably since2Since month, little rebound25 thousandIt/Ton, but same than still arise decrease,7RealizeEPSIt is simple0.78It/Share increases62.5%( according8Year1RealizeEPSSimple0.21It/Share increases65%( according to7Go up2.5Percentage8Year1Quarterly50%Above stock company has mainly: Hubei is suitable , the 6 country chemical potash fertilizers of salt lake and blue star new materials , install recently stock and China Bo fine, Britain force special, clear star stock, Shandong sea dragon and wind supernatural stock,8Year1Quarterly achievement will
The catalyst of8Year1Report
Bank field: Hold board
One is the impact of external loan"Size"Lift a ban and
We reiteration8The ample confidence
Since7Add the hysteresis release of breath effect in year , group Bei for profit feed on the contrary the decrease of, effective tax rate, as well as the ability of structural adjustment of bank intrinsic, we think2008In year, bank50%The net profit that controls
January data8In year, bank
Though, the policy of early stage1Month loan still maintains swift increase, it is recently high that ring happens than increment wound. Combine the more rapid increase of deposit further, before we think that annual loan increment reaches is estimated3.6Wan the possibility1The current deposit of month bank takes in than and long-term
Continuity"Increasing"Grade:
Process this ship adjustment,"Increasing"Grade
銆€銆€0.May bank field
Recently a period, the< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=11 month=1 year=2008>1Month11Day< chsdate/>Since, appear on the24.9%, is declining300Happen10.5Percentage point. We think that price adjustment one of recent bank field is since external market estimates the impact of value fluctuation, 2 is come from is macroscopic in domestic to reduce the influence of policy, 3 is because of layer market the role of some factors of surface.
銆€銆€1.The 3 bank board
We think that cause recent bank
銆€銆€1.1Loan crisis impact
Recently abroad,< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=15 month=1 year=2008>1Month15Day< chsdate/>, national city180The loan loss2007Year4Quarterly98.3100 million< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=17 month=1 year=2008>1Month17Day< chsdate/>, beautiful167After the asset2007Year4Quarterly98.3100 million< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=24 month=1 year=2008>1Month24Day< chsdate/>, France invigorates49The euro loss of20.5The euro< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=30 month=1 year=2008>1Month30Day< chsdate/>, Rui silver group140100 million dollars after114100 million dollars,
Under these sharp empty unceasing strikes, western financial board piece has arisen obvious adjustment. Spend flag group and beautiful forest , Rui silver with the share America that remits plentiful group , remit plentiful control the Hong Kong's share price of share to part once to be declining16.0%,11.7%,28.2%,12.0%And11.4%. When under the collar of financial6.32%And14.6%. Since the role of the effect of rate ofAThe most visual
銆€銆€1.2Domestic reduces
Every macroeconomics data issued recently
銆€銆€< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=24 month=1 year=2008>1Month24Day< chsdate/>, the National2007YearCPIRise4.8%, it is recently
銆€銆€< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=14 month=2 year=2008>2Month14Day< chsdate/>, center1In month, financial1Month loan8036It is recently
銆€銆€2Month18-19Japan and1Month pricePPIRise6.1%CPIRise7.1%.CPIRise1996Since year,
Though1The end of"The correct complexity of knowing external economic environment fully and holding world economic tendency and its influence for our country and changefulness, the rhythm of scientific assurance macro-control and intensity maintain economic steady more rapid increase as far as possible longly", but until now, the tight< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=16 month=1 year=2008>1Month16Day< chsdate/>, center trip has0.5Percentage1In month,4330100 million Yuan. In the Spring Festival,1950The center ticket of 1004Issue been counter-purchasing3300100
When1After month financial operation and price condition related data enact , market has strengthened generally the expectation enacted for the later policy of adjusting control, thinking in world major country lower interest background the tool utilization of our country of interest rate difficulty obvious increase, but estimate to will still come through the quantity type tools such as the deposit rate and window guidance of capital reserve to restrict the increase of mobility further. Mobility tighten up constantly, make the expectation of market for rear city tend to prudent, the big a plate of shares such as bank become investor recovery mobility sell object mainly.
銆€銆€1.3Bank board piece
NearAThe negative disturbance factor of share
A important"Size"Lift a ban. Recruit trip and invigorate
Another disturbance< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=20 month=2 year=2008>2Month20Day< chsdate/>, Pu hair bank stock falls10100 million have direct relation.
銆€銆€2.Reiteration8Annual bank field
銆€銆€2.1 2007Year all8In year,25Basic
Though2007Year add"Store"Characteristic,49.33%Current deposit interest rate no raising, besides only last, this some of add breath for bank field advantage difference has to promote role. But this kind of promote role show is hysteresis, what this is since the difference of net profit is measured is that day the earning rate of remaining sum can only reflect year partially therefore add the influence of breath, and asset liability price new price has time lag.
Basis we2007It will make if2008Annual bank2007Rise48.8Basic point,2007Rise91Basic point,25Basic point. This10%The net profit
銆€銆€2.2Group Bei for profit
Enter21Century since,2005Year is begun , the enterprise service7Keep20%Above2007In year, industrial enterprise2003Keep beginning from year in5Year is that5Year. This kind of good riding quality of national economy makes commercial bank new increase the loan control of fraction defective in very low level, group Bei idea mentions pressure major embodiment when past bad loan cover.
銆€銆€2.4The ability of structural
Estimate2008Annual bank field will carry out internal
(1) loan structural adjustment2007In annual first half3.27%, is lower6.12%. Estimated2008Reduce bill discount index in year, general commercial loan
(2) develop asset bond melt etc. table outside2006The publishing111.83%Reach164.04100 million Yuan.2005Year12Month is put out , present work trip , build trip , Pu the banks such as hair have tried one after another water this new asset liability table management way, the people's livelihood and invigorate economy the publishing plan of having also submited related product.
When2008The background of annual loan increase total control takes off , asset bond melts have offered one for commercial bank satisfy the utility preference of customer crowd financing demands while complying with superintendency requirement.
(3) have offered the reinforced favorable opportunity of the internal construction dangerous management of soft breeze for bank because of various reason, the bank field internal check system of our country always stresses the check of business scale mainly, this is the one of important reason that causes the operation of commercial bank to value scale, light risk and light benefit , have restrained commercial bank when long-term the promotion of competitiveness. Same field competitive quilt simplification is the competition of market share. Implement if according to quarterly loan adjusting control, having implemented , the business scale of commercial bank increase anxiety will obvious Shu postpone , this operation that is helpful for bank focal point from scale index turns to profit index, it is tight to build with the basicness and system that type management turns to management , so promotes offset to compete , fosters long-term strategic competitiveness.
銆€銆€3.For the negative
銆€銆€3.1Loan is limited
See from2007Year3Quarterly end holds the domestic commercial bank of loan product have only work trip , in build trip , trip is 3. Hold condition and the preparation sum condition that mentions specifically to see next table.
For work trip and build2007-2008The influence6%It is about. For in trip, related influence50%Control.< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=18 month=2 year=2008>2Month18Day< chsdate/>In, when trip shows for exterior, this trip has sold completely all loan held to be related to mortgage bond, consider is related with loan bond reduce value preparation as well as after total sell the disposal loss of related bond, should be all right2007Annual net profit may still get obvious2007In year, trip will reach the720100 million Yuan. Therefore,2007Year4Is completed in188Take within2007In year, the21%.
In in a word, trip is been by this loan crisis influence most2008The operation campaign of year does not get the influence of loan crisis, supporting achievement the factor of growth has not yet occured worse turning, therefore we think that domestic capital market should not over decipher for loan crisis.
銆€銆€3.2The foreign share
This time global bank share4Exposing in quarter come outSPE,VIEWaiting for way undertake the loan risk that exceeds the U.S. dollar of hundred billions , remit plentiful control the investment scale of share in loan product also reach the U.S. dollar of hundred billions around. But we may see , only besides Rui silver, directly geting loan crisis each domestic bank ship of influence falls however when10%Control,2Since middle of the month Xun share price always keeps steady. No matter these stock prices stabilize whether have reflected the expectation of market for government intervention, we think that this forms the one of reason for that bank field recovers confidence.
銆€銆€4.In January,
銆€銆€< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=14 month=2 year=2008>2Month14Day< chsdate/>, people's1Month financial operation condition.2008Year bank already
銆€銆€4.1 2008Annual bank14%Control
Basis center1In month, the RMB26.97Wan 100 million16.74%; In the8036100 million2373100 million Yuan.3.6Wan 1001It is1.26Wan the volume1Month has been22.3%And63.8%. Market loan demand is still vigorous, this signifies that on the one hand, it is problematic that commercial bank uses enough annual line of credit fully, on the other hand, the ability of negotiated price of bank in credit market is promoted apparently, this is helpful for bank to raise loan earning rate.
In fact, now, many domestic commercial
Besides1In month, the RMB15.12%. At present, commercial bank stores14%The loan increase
銆€銆€4.2Earning rate raises
When1Month8036The loan increment2863100 million Yuan. Though increment takes50.2%.
銆€銆€4.3Current deposit takes
Since1MonthM120.72%Same is moreM218.94%, thereforeM1/M2Than the same period2007Year12This month index level2007Year11MonthM1/M2Still rise
SinceM2=M1+Deposit+Deposit+It is otherM1/M2Is regard as to judge1Month data comes to see , we think the RMB current
Petroleum chemical Pay4Share
Though, crude price is created again high, before profession basic appearance, have not also worsened further. The policy of country is possible only to support and protect state-owned Petroleum Company. The adjustment via near 4 month, in from the angle observation of price/earning ratio, in petroleum , petrochemical industry estimate value to fall to respectively2009Year24Time19Time. In at the same time, global the stock market caused by secondary debt crisis is upheaval and gradually calm , in petroleum , petrochemical industry when American trade since store to hold proof the Spring Festival tendency is steadyHShare tendency also tends toAThe site of
銆€銆€1.Chinese
Though company can not25The price/earning ratio around time estimates value have had certain investment value. Have greater unfavourable influence because of resource tax reform for company, investor now need to still wait for resource tax reform scheme enact. Keep"It"Grade.
銆€銆€2.Chinese
Company300It may turn debt if 1000.8%. Since company's achievement is sensitive for the"It"Grade.
銆€銆€3.In sea
Company's achievement wall bulletin and our2830It is first to invest in area. It may expect"It"Grade.
銆€銆€4.Sea oil
Company will adopt directional increase the way of happening to go on again financing. From it sea oil over the years come to capital expense analysis, used in development, the proportion of project is close80It is quick2002Year746The increase2008Year4149100 million Yuan. The income of sea oil project30-1The progress of"Increasing"Grade.
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