American secondary debt crisis and its influence

American secondary

Eye Record

Are one and.1

2 and crisis.1

The influenceJi, global financial market derives 3

( one) the influence.4

( 2) the influence of secondary debt to 5

( 3) secondary debt.6

( 4) secondary debt.7

( 5) secondary debt crisis.11

( 6) the influence.12

4, deal with policyIs "Secondary debt further transformation has.13

5 and secondary.16

( one) the warning.16

( 2) our country.16

( 3) secondary debt.17

Recently, American secondary mortgage loan crisis when " global radiation effect " show increasingly, not only cause the major financial markets such as America, European Union and Japan to arise " certain panic ", and for merchandise option market arising certain influence. Following for American secondary debt crisis occur, reason, influence does following explanation:

Are one and

The American house market of( Prime Market), "ALT-A" loan market( Subprime Market). It is been credit grade high that high quality loan market faces , income the fine customer of reasonable steady reliable, debt burden; It is lower that secondary market denotes credit score , income proof is short of the heavier customer that loses and is in debt; "ALT-A" loan market is situated between between both region. In American loan market, secondary loan takes share and is not large, taking secondary room loan as example, take American overall room loan approximately according to the data that authority announces7%Arrive8%, but its profit is highest in all loan, because2%To3%.

Secondary debt isThe operating mode that melts is secondary loan bond: Buy room person puts forward loan application, secondary mortgage finance company provides room loan, bank loans from the loan organization purchase housing mortgage on hand , concentrates loan to pack , forms asset pool in order to scatter risk, divide asset pool into the little bond sold then to large market investor publication to melt product.

2 and crisis

Since2001Year2004In year, America unites to store up for stimulate economic increase and implements the low policy of interest rate, make American real estate industry develop quickly, room price climbs continuously to rise , American buies room enthusiasm to heat up constantly, secondary mortgage loan market has satisfied many credits the demand of not high personage, American house possesses rate since64% rising69%. Put loan interagency competition to aggravate , urge to have given birth to varied high risk secondary mortgage loan product: Pay interest mortgage loan as , promise borrows money person pays interest only in borrowing money for former some years do not pay capital; " zero head is paid " , " zero file" loan way, borrow money person may buy room under the condition that has no fund , need to report only the proof that income condition need not offer any relevant ability of repaying , wait as wages strip and over tax proof. The data of American government shows2003Year2005It is gone to never10%Going30%Control.

However, as17Adds breath,2006Year is begun , American housing market cools down obviously, under the high condition of interest rate, room price appearance falling, house sale area drops continuously, borrow money person the reimbursement burden per month aggravates constantlyThis makes secondary mortgage loan borrow money person is hard to pay loan on schedule, its result is some estates throw again to market, when can not sell satisfactory price, borrow money person claims bankruptcy or file for bankruptcy protection , what reserve to give loan person is to be lower than the estate of loan amount of money, loan person can only bear the loss of loan.

To scatter above-mentioned loss and for rushing , risk and some secondary finance companies begin to sell above-mentioned asset to investment bank to mortgage bond , but have the characteristic with high risk and weak mobility because of this kind of bond assurance proof, is scatter risk, investment bank again to the financial institutions such as insurance company , as rush fund etc. offer assurance bond proof in order to gain circulating fund. And along with the depression of the market of real estate, the process that above-mentioned asset bond melts gets hindrance , is so invested in directly or indirectly in the domestic of above-mentioned securities or foreign financial institution had been rolled up into this crisis chain. Some put loan and investment organization also arise a huge sum of loss therefore, even go bankrupt.

Secondary6000100 million dollars takes6%)Have the loan total3000100 million3%. Different organization for secondary500100- 1000100 million dollars; Thunder2250100 million dollars, if3000100 million dollars. Secondary debt will put loan for the financial institutions such as bank to produce surely psychological influence , making market credit fund decrease to form mobility reduce , after each big major center trip of whole world lasts massively to pour into fund to market, market volatility tends to recently to calm down.

A past century, American housing according to1890Year1930Year is first stage, citify stage , restrict1930Year1980Later stage is second stage, deposit credit stage, right1980In year, later stage passes through asset bond until now for 3th stage i.e. capital marketization stage to melt , capital market investor becomes the major supplier of mortgage loan, its characteristic is market validity is higher, it has message asymmetricalness and is hard to superintend.

This time secondary debt crisis is since credit grant organization may pass through mortgage loan very conveniently asset bond melts to pack to transfer, no strict examination borrows money the superintendency system of person; Just since investor can not is numerous for kind just complex structured product thorough is known , can not quantify in which place Yun contain risk, thus it is lost that existent message is short of seriously and asymmetricalness. Being just these have caused entire credit market crisis and the panic of investor. But relative to global financial market165Wan the total50Wan the fund quantity of the scale of 100 million dollars, market should can digest this part of loss, the loss of the real economy caused by secondary loan problem is limited. Point may be affirmed , the past comfortable grant times of mortgage loan will pass , more strict credit grant standard will be put forward and adopted extensively, being related to derive the message disclosure of article will more ample, mortgage loan market will enter more mature, effective stage. At the same time, it is more mature to accompany market, in which stage returns to harmonize labor pain can not avoid , it is also positive.

The influence( is for macroeconomics , global financial

Major

The economy that mainstream viewpoint though supports secondary debt to will not bring globalness crisis, however its might cannot little Qu. Secondary debt crisis has been concerned with the numerous aspect of global economy, besides secondary debt productCDOAndMBSUntil deriving the loss that article causes , can not show very quickly, it is scattered and digested slowly that the problem that mobility excesses needs global countries to go , so, this secondary debt crisis is impossible to solve very quickly, we think that still need3-6Month time observes and

The influence of secondary debt to whole world depends on that the influence for American economy is decided , is to put to postpone only if crisis has not yet made America arise recession, so, its influence is limited, otherwise global economic order may need new layout. The influence of being secondary debt for American the real economy that we need to so pay attention to degree.

Because of the capital fire wall of China, secondary debt causes direct loss for China is not large , is for bank , the influence of the field of real estate is also little; The influence for China embodies mainly, is paid on export trade, if secondary loan problem affects American consumer, eventually, will influence China, because it will not be twisted at all that China relies on still relatively the, otherwise Chinese steady economic basic surface that America exports.

Secondary debt crisis is producing influence for Chinese capital market, it can help to push Chinese asset price , forms huge foam; The financial profession of China will be compelled to move up open key field again under the condition of not make ample preparation; Under the condition that risk hierarchy of control has not completed , Chinese external investment will be mentioned quickly.

The influence of option market of secondary debt crisis to China is limited , is in proper order for the influence of every kind: Influence biggest is crude oil , basic metal etc. concern the merchandise of economic blood pulse, the second is related industrial product , is to wait for kind with the economic period close agricultural product with relatively lower degree finally. Secondary debt crisis may make the range of U.S. dollar devaluation and the RMB appreciation of exchange rate accelerate , this may influence some inside and outside a plate of relations of rate of exchange with the kind of closely related import and export, and then the price tendency that influences the very merchandise.

( one) the influence

Secondary debt incident has caused greater influence in certain time for global economy, but since long-term go up see the influence for that global macroeconomics basic surface does not cause foundation.

From major country, receiveGDPTendency picture comes to see , economy2002Year2003In year, economy2004Year begins to be in the passageway of rising, Japanese

America2001Year- 2006The low policy of interest rate that pursues in year has promoted consumption and the investment of American real estate greatly between, past 5 years, the room of America price has fallen out to fall out, real estate industry develop fast, have driven the industrial investments of lower reaches such as steel and building material and consumer increase, multiplier effect plays thoroughly. American inflation since1992Keep beginning from year in low position to wander, American overall economy has not yet arisen overheat sign , still keeps in normal scope, economic maintenance increases smoothly. The unemployment rate of America is in historical low position, current employment market have not yet dimension level debt incident the deterioration with obvious appearance, it is not large that economy falls into the possibility of decline. U.S. dollar from2001Year is long-term and fast as begining to devalue to transform the relatively steady interval fluctuation tendency of some years into, the possibility of U.S. dollar fast devaluation reduces , the possibility of slow devaluation is larger.

Since2002Begin global economy in year to come back to life obviously , is now overall and well to develop , efficiently, especially the burgeoning domestic transfer of industrialized country that is still in in recent years global industry as well as the dense issue of basic construction investment , have restrained the coherent further proliferation that expands , but rise since resource kind of merchandise is continued , asset kind of price expansion, whole world knows to expand , have had no channel of transfer, cause to know to expand to expect rising, pushing again have commodity price high, going round and round form , is malignant and coherent to expand. The merchandise structuralness that we define is such a process: Worth return recently- -Worth- -New price is created , duration companion raw U.S. dollar crisis, energy crisis and trade lose weighing apparatus and credit crisis, since direct Dao since see , lose weighing apparatus mainly by structure and trigger , at the same time, the financial upheaval caused by American secondary debt is a process of global mobility cycle, will not produce ultimacy impact for commodity price, know because merchandise market is confrontation to expand good haven.

In last few years, global mobility excesses as well as interest rate lasts in low position to wander, cause global market to have arisen certain asset foam, just recent secondary debt incident for the American profession of real estate inflict heavy losses on and is for the influence of global the stock market , have caused a succession of chain reaction more. In this process, market investor confidence is insufficient, each big institutional investor reduces storehouse one after another , and has begun rational thought, the confidence that the masses develop in short period for economy deficiency, psychology goes up think artificially global economy meeting walks gradually into decline issue. These incidents can make global market arise certain degree on certain degree land the phenomenon of returning tune. Have been concerned with the numerous aspect of global economy because of secondary debt crisis, besides secondary debt productCDOAndMBSEtc. derive article the loss caused can not show very quickly, it is scattered and digested slowly that the problem that mobility excesses needs global countries to go , so, this secondary debt crisis is impossible to solve very quickly, we think that still need3-6Month time observes and

IMFAbout the researchDrop1The influence0.2% increases decrease , but is much big for the influence of developing country. Influence biggest is Asian with Latin America. If the influence of secondary debt to American economy is put merely slowly, the influence for Wall Street will not also enlarge in America under the help united to store up, development balance can get recovery, soNot only is limited for the influence of developed country, it will not also have very serious influence for Asia and Latin America. If secondary debt crisis makes American economy appear , declines considerably. For example, the negative growth of two continuous quarterly economies, not is development balance whether the problem that can recover , global economic order possibility wants new layout.

( 2) the influence of secondary debt to

Action1998Year"Long-term"Since crisis, erupt in mobility crisis and8Middle of the month"Nation-wide"Negative news13 thousandSome big barrier at the same< xml:namespace prefix=st1 ns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"/>< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=13 month=8 year=2007>8Month13Day< chsdate/>To17In one week2886100 million

At the same time, crisis still11Month is now,80Many domestic secondary11Home has announced that goes- -New century finance company. Other countries have no similar report temporarily yet , but have attracted partially international financial institution to have intervened American secondary debt market comparatively deeply as far as the prosperity of American housing market is concerned , therefore do not remove the possibility broken out such as risk incident again.

Is other, crisis returns cause take the responsibility for offering mobility and asset bond to melt the large scale bank business of business gets influence, it is serious to invest in the various fund losses of secondary debt, the arbitrage trades such as Yen cut storehouse, American and other national consumer's confidences are baffled , have the non government bond decrease of financial condition.

Why American secondary mortgage loan crisis quick upgrade, development is upheaval for global finance , has swept global debt city, credit market and the stock market in very short time and remit city, we come for the time being to pay attention to following chain reaction:

First, because of worrying and secondary mortgage loan, pull relation, investor sells one after another the non government bond on hand held , causes the credit type bond prices such as company's debt to fall , the government price of government bonds section rising, the sharp difference of and company's debt has been pulled open9.11Since biggest

Secondly, to avoid risk, as investment bank and"Xi"It is been below that atmosphere

It is 3th, except the few fund company that has exposed , investor worrying can still have other as rush fund has an accident , causing fund company bear , is huge to redeem to return pressure, it is current to be compelled in global the stock market to sell stock cover, cause each big the stock market to be general to fall.< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=19 month=7 year=2007>7Month19Day< chsdate/>, the American1104At 1000 o'clock above, wound< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=15 month=8 year=2007>8Month15Day< chsdate/>, the index of1103At 1000 o'clock following,

4th is the important source of global circulating fund because of Yen arbitrage trade, after western the stock market and debt city fall , Yen arbitrage person levels storehouse one after another , causes the Yen rising of exchange rate, cause remit city fluctuation.

To slow down this crisis, the possible influence caused is beautiful , the country central banks such as Japan and Europe finance one after another, increase mobility in order to save city , but accumulate because of American loan market problem by year after, it also has room price goes is low , market money rate goes to high factor, fund supply reduces credit threshold and overlook risk management , demand square excessiveness borrows etc. condition, the solution of problem is impossible to be completed very quickly, its influence or will continue.

( 3) secondary debt

First, for derive article market, this crisis maximumly influence as rush the expression of fund, because of the outbreak of crisis can increase investor for risk detest mood, so, may cause the behavior of investor for redeeming to grow , and then cause fund level storehouse from market, derive article market flat storehouse especially from finance, if< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=16 month=8 year=2007>8Month16Day< chsdate/>LMEMarket fall is

Secondly, crisis may make consumer's confidence be baffled , and produces recession from this or slow down worry. For merchandise option market, future this kind of worried price tendency of influence merchandise futures maximumly. Go to kind specifically to see , influence biggest is crude oil , basic metal etc. concern the merchandise of economic blood pulse, the second is related industrial product , is to wait for kind with the economic period close agricultural product with relatively lower degree finally.

Again, crisis may still influence finance to derive the innovation process of article. The arising of secondary debt is since bankers will retain the risk classification in own asset liability table in the past to cut apart , is sold , and forms after bond melts. This makes fund cost become more and more cheap , is high for the demand of risk asset, at the same time also make asset coherent expand 4 overflows , and have triggered plenty of speculative campaigns , and then form certain credit foam, and its core only derives article foam. Once entire chain had been suspended forced, necessity produces relatively serious aftermath, eventually must restrict later financial innovation campaign take place.

Finally, the still possible transparent aspects in superintendency such as globalization and systematization occur change , and are possible to bring up again the subjects such as cautious superintendency principle. In this crisis, judging have created how many debts eventually, is very difficult, because in the new-type tool of causing above-mentioned debt , a lot of tools is not quite transparent, and its verification process is also insufficient and prudent. Is other, use as rush fund and structuralness as rush tool(SIV) etc. raising the investor of liabilitySEC,CFTCHave discussed joint superintendency and multinational superintendency as well as reinforcement as as rush the problems such as fund management, but eventually, have not yet reached consistent opinion, once crisis outbreak, necessity arouses above-mentioned department look closely at again.

( 4) secondary debt

Overall see , now, Chinese the stock market is to be able to neglect with finance, traffic, Unicom, the service industries of introvert type such as move and the impact in market structure and secondary debt short period with manufacturing of dominant , but especially influences the consumption of America if secondary debt influences international economy, it is very big for exporting the influence of type enterprise. Unless America falls into serious decline therefore, Chinese steady economic basic surface will not be twisted at all. We think that present secondary debt crisis will be one market impact more only , and will not cause economic systematicness to collapse. It may be the judgment of investment opportunity that the market that maintains secondary debt influence is declining.

The macroscopic

See from international fund floating angle, secondary debt crisis meeting in short time for world capital flow causes greater influence, may cause fund to flow into domestic to accelerate. Magnify from secondary debt influence after, Yen carries trade reflux and U.S. dollar to rise suddenly as well as the condition that Euro-currency is declining analysis, on the one hand is secondary debt will cause global mobility to tighten up , on the other hand, is excess flow out capital begin new layout in global scope. In China head the prospect of good burgeoning economic body increase and the expectation of upward revaluation of currency takes off , It is expected that it is accelerated further that fund flows into the speed of these countries to fall, cause larger pressure for domestic basic currency input and exchange rate.

If secondary debt causes RMB exchangeCPIProduce to suppress role. On the one hand is the RMB appreciation of exchange rate can as rush the rising of inflation, on the other hand, export increases fast decrease, can increase domestic supply efficiently, so, restrain inflation. At the same time, get secondary debt influence, recently international commodity price falling, can also reduce enterprise cost , reduce the inflation of cost promotion.

Finally, in view of the unclear worrying for the global financial upheaval and economic prospect that secondary debt causes , the macro-control policy of Chinese government may change therewith. On the one hand secondary debt crisis, have refered to the huge destructiveness of financial market risk again to Chinese government, make Chinese government for finance market raising vigilance may enact to suppress the measure of financial superheating; On the other hand, because of the decline of international economic possible appearance, the export that can influence China so influences the economic increase of China, stem from is economic and increased for not come to worry , may also cause the postponement of central government to suppress domestic economic overheat measure enact. Since government needs a time to observe the export increase of China and the global economic condition under secondary debt influence , whether get to influence as well as get the at the end of the year around stern measure of adjusting control of what influence and market universal expectation that enacted may postpone.

Secondary debt

For home market, should not cause direct influence,AThe site of the stock market has not been opened completely, the stock market and debt city , remit city to wait also enclose relatively, secondary debt crisis has no channel direct impact market. Cause direct loss beneath probably for secondary debt, as well as as analyse with the influence of bank field and real estate that secondary debt problem contacts most closely.

1, government aspect: Along2005Year becomes the oldest investor of global bond5The statistical2006Year6In the end2550The organization1070100 millionABS; Hold590The company's150100 millionABS. And6Month6Month, open data1000Company's debt and the6Exceed4000The non government bonds such4050The American national debt of 100 million dollars.3The loss calculationMBS,ABSThe loss of120100 million dollars controls. At the same time, since international market is upheaval, expecting the international stock right of the Chinese investment company of foreign exchange make investment , can suffer certain loss, it is said that invest in dark stone30The loss of10100 million dollars, the investment of investment Ba-Ke-Lai bank present loss condition is unclear. And basis is high flourishing , rub the thoroughly this worlds such as level sharp, Paris bank to throw the calculation of trip , now, the loss in bond market of China is approximately100100 million dollars, in which major is center trip the bond loss held. But since center is all right , the bond held is non trade type normally, if so as the accountant that holds to expire principle calculation, actual loss is very limited. The American national debt that China holds , meeting stores up in this process since America unites to reduce the needs of breath as well as fund evasive risk profit, meeting as rush the loss of partial organization debt company's debts.

2,Bank field aspect

Low take

From investment, secondary"Take than". In basis,6In the end of1.95Wan 100 million Yuan,89.65100 million dollars3.51%; Work trip holds284100 million dollars,12.29100 million dollars4.32%, take work0.0012%; And build trip10.62100 million dollars2.75%.

When investing in the American bond that includes secondary debt, this few bank is also more cautious, incline normally in investment to grade higher secondary debt. In for instance in, the American bond of trip investmentAAAGrade75.38%AAGrade21.70%AGrade2.92%. Make investment in the AmericanCDO)6.82100 million dollars0.27%. InAAAGrade81.8%AAGrade18.2%.

Preparation

For secondary debt, the way of 3 bank handlings is somewhat different, but it is ample that it prepares. Work trip president Yang Kai Sheng shows , work trip the secondary debt held , is for sell kind, therefore basis the processing technique of this kind of bond, superficial loss or superficial profit can influence all person rights and interests, will not but pass through group Bei carry out accounting handling."Present work trip the secondary bond held , no any bond had been reduced to grade, and, work menstruate is tested after the pressure that investment bank carries out with world , shows as a result that these bonds will not be reduced to grade , capital will not also arise loss."

In trip president Li Li Hui expression, in in view of the fluctuation of recent American credit market, trip has reduced value analysis cautiously for invest in combination, have mentioned according to partially secondary housing loan mortgage bond idea do not realize to reduce value preparation RMB3.88100 million Yuan sums for the7.58100 million Yuan. Bank of China will

For secondary debt,0.18100 million dollars. Build trip chief financial Guan-Pang-Xiu-Sheng expression, a few of bonds demote or market value does not form group below cost Bei condition, but give birth if in the future, cash aborts risk, build trip will increase group Bei"Now can't still". Build trip president Guo tree settles to say , for entire secondary debt incident, though still having uncertainty in the future, scope is limited, when may control scope, will not for whole world economy arising too big influence, for Chinese influence, it is less

3,For the influence

Since the development degree of the financial market of our country is limited, according to the financial innovation of real estate, is few, only last year, building trip and country to be all right open, it is limitedMBSBesides, the no other finance of real estate derives product, therefore the influence of American secondary debt to the real estate of our country is on psychology with a maximum of. Analyse from the structure of the mortgage loan of real estate, the market financing of real estate of our country is taking bank as core, the grant of bank for the loan of real estate has strict head to pay proportion and the control of interest rate , has only a rank. Do not have the financial company of real estate like America , may provide the loan of not equal level for the customer of different classification. On financial market, according to the finance of real estate, deriving article nearly have no. And make problem this time, actually, it is also not that biggest, our similar bank of the quantity of American bank grant provides the mortgage loan of real estate of normal rank , but is the secondary loan of insufficient bank normal loan rank. Because our country has no secondary loan , also have no is related derive product, therefore we are impossible to arise similar problem.

At the same time, our real estate2006Enter decline stage at the beginning of the year , now is in to bottom the slippery acceleration that falls stage, start from bridal chamber growth rate and old room sale status see , expected America most also gets the talent of next year quickly genuine after all prosperous the lowest point of real estate. High flourishing report thinks that refering to historical experience, present American real estate is in decrease passageway2/3There are still final one to fall3For year, dozen presses many adjusting control, when demand promotion takes off , the prosperous degree of real estate is still at a unchanged high level. From the period of real estate, see , also have no with America may than sex.

Certainly, is influenced by this secondary debt disturbance, the financial superintendency organization of our country will absorb lesson from it , notices to guard against the loan risk of commercial bank of real estate. Is but similar to raise the means such as first payment proportion, is helpful to restrain room more price soars the foam that brings , and then the long-term prosperity of guaranteeing the profession of real estate , and reduce the risk of the bank mortgage loan of real estate further.

4,Influence major

For the influence of Chinese economy, will embody mainly in the aspect of export trade, but the influence of short period is limited. Because of RMB when is slow for U.S. dollar to appreciate , when for non beautiful depreciation, actual effective exchange rate is now low, add the very Chinese product again cost advantage, the international competitiveness of Chinese product does not be reduced as before. At the same time, as the Europe of Chinese first big trading partner, can also offset American demand partially to increase to put the negative role of postponing for Chinese export. In the future that may be foreseen , Chinese export will still maintain high speed increase, Chinese mobility excesses , have still huge pressure. Therefore in pretty long period, RMB exchange rate will be the one of major problem of Chinese economy. However, if secondary mortgage loan problem affects American consumer's expense, this can influence China eventually, because China relies on exporting for America still relatively.

( 5) secondary debt crisis

It is first, it can help to push Chinese asset price , forms huge foam. Western center behavior saves mobility finance in large quantities, or America unites to store up , lower interest in near future, will make the currency mobility of international market tend to overflow more. These mobilities the road that can find investment sooner or later , emerging market, especially the asset price of the Chinese market of world biggest emerging market, will encounter another ship strong impact. What may affirm is that Chinese capital market is under the condition of being nearly impossible to already control actually , international heavy goods, the stock market of China and building city equivalence shelf will still go up. Near future is had2.1Wan the fund of 100 million Yuan hits 3 new shares , powerful foreign capital mops up Chinese building city, have explained the condition that mobility 4 overflows , this condition will be still aggravated in the future.

Recently, the stock market of Hong Kong has the tendency of two worth-while attentions: One is American aluminium field Wednesday expression, have sold the stock on hand of the Chinese aluminium field Joint Stock Limited Company that holds , cover to show153HK$ 100 million; 2 is the Chinese926610 thousand,10.6HK$ 1007Month, Ba-Fei-Te12.441HKD is169010 thousand inHShare holds9.72%.

Reducing hold possibility, have two reasons, or estimate the market of Hong Kong will go into a ship decrease issue, and temporarily, profit to finish. Another reason is that seek value depression again after profiting , win again to take the investment profit more than 10 times. Beautiful aluminium is expressed clearly, they will go to fund new disposition to include China in other increment asset go up, they will seek the opportunity in the Chinese last industrial investment of lower reaches continuously. This signifies , have these funds may become the boost motor of the asset price that pastes last Chinese label.

Second, Chinese financial profession will

It has been become urgent day by day that by secondary debt influence, America shifts the requirement of risk, American domestic will so as ask China open and financial than former stronger intensity capital profession.< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=5 month=9 year=2007>9Month5Day< chsdate/>, House of Representatives has passed a symbol resolution rarely , asks Chinese financial service industry to relieve completely for American enterprise , the America that urges American bank field to superintend department in verification Chinese enterprise operation permission, should will"China whether restrict"This factor consideration in. Right now, straight

3th is under the condition that risk6100 million20%Stock, when this in encounter the China that a lot of persons scathingly denounce to remit to throw company's investment the losing trade of dark stone, what is eye-catching is that dark stone plays the part of China in this process to invest in the role of measuring to press ware outward. Investment dark stone has gotten American Ministry of Finance tacitly consent to , this makes Chinese investment personal raise stock right the limit of fund comparison is clear.

What make one pay attention to more is that country capital member director Li Rong melts recent expression, country capital member recently already and remit to throw company have discussed operating mode, country capital member recommends backward person excellent central government enterprise, the latter will help central enterprise to add sea outside investment intensity , make central as soon as possible enterprise grows up have the multinational company of influence more. Have had16Domestic center trip fits to enter to remit throw company's field of vision. It is very clear, remit to throw company will recur to remit golden company buy a share the domestic pattern of large scale enterprise, and help Chinese state-owned enterprise to make investment in world scope. Dark stone when will in which play the role of what role make one pay attention to.

A capital big battle pulls open prologue long ago, secondary debt crisis makes China to be advanced to enter stand for war to site. In the campaign that this everybody pays attention to , investor has only to observe grain and gold strictly , the merchandises such as energy are go up article of faith, then can hide to rob.

( 6) the influence

Comprehensive existing market expression

1, the influence of crisis to overall Chinese economy possibility is limited. Each domestic analysis organization that includes government thinks , so long as secondary debt problem does not influence the real economy of America, does not bring big influence for Chinese economy very much, and once influencing the real economy receiving direct influence is the markets such as import and export mainly, the influence for option market is compared indirectly.

2, present domestic and secondary debt direct is related is few large countries have to appear on the market bank, analysis shows that these banks may be concerned with the secondary debt loss of hundred millions of Yuans. However according to the stipulation of current national policy, option market seldom has fund direct source in the financial institutions such as bank, therefore it is less that issue city receives influence.

3There are few, domestic option markets or nearly, have no professional investment fund, and even fund is the very, the contact of and foreign financial market is also not very close , passes therefore to influence fund( or as rush fund) and then influences domestic to expect that the possibility of city had been also reduced.

4, exchange rate aspect, according to the stipulation of national relevant policy, there are few domestic issue cities or have no fund direct source in abroad basically, therefore its direct influence is less. But at the same time, secondary debt crisis may make the range of U.S. dollar devaluation and the RMB appreciation of exchange rate accelerate , this may influence some inside and outside a plate of relations of rate of exchange with the kind of closely related import and export, and then the price tendency that influences the very merchandise. However, what reflect because of the very futures is a kind of expectation , have in which included the influence of this kind of tendency and its possibility, therefore so long as exchange rate does not appear big turn or change suddenly on the contrary, should not produce greater unfavourable influence for the option market of our country.

5The essence of, secondary debt crisis is credit crisis, once erupting , necessity causes major influence for the credit system of entire market , but, as far as the option market of our country is concerned, has the risk management system perfected relatively relatively, and the credit system of entire country is more healthy, therefore, the influence of secondary debt crisis to the market of our country degree and scope should be very limited.

6, see from the order that influences merchandise market , it is influenced that secondary creditor will produce possible essence for the domestic merchandise related to import and export and real estate, in which it is most major, crude oil and basic metal etc. concern the industrial product of the lifeblood of national economy , are to have energy concept secondly , or are just to receive the agricultural product etc. of less economic period influence finally with the industrial economic related merchandise with more close relation. From the relation of option market, though, the influence between different market is different from relation, but see from former experience, entire merchandise option market is influenced by crisis order should is similar with the condition in the real economy.

Additionally, as America unites , storing up former chairman shelf Lin Si Pan point out , derive the vigorous development of article market, and not because its special sale means, and it is to manage tool because to the use that derives product , person has offered a kind of effective asset combination, once crisis outbreak, investor possibility needs this kind of more special financial instruments more the risk that original asset may be faced with for rushing , and this will make entire option market develop further.

7, crisis outbreak serious possibility causes policy risk. After this crisis is broken out , the central banks of national region such as America, Japan and Europe finance the stock market one after another in order to alleviate mobility risk, but its result still has great uncertainty. Once eventually, saving city, do not become , may cause global recession , may cause from this the countries government intervention that includes Chinese government , so bring policy risk to the option market of our country.

4, deal with policy"Secondary debt further transformation has

The secondary debt crisis of American outbreak and its global financial market concussion that causes have aroused the high attention of people. America unites to store up , Japanese center trip etc. finance one after another, in order to replenish the mobility of financial market. See table up to< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=23 month=8 year=2007>8Month23Day< chsdate/>Countries

Global center

Date

Country

/Region

Finance(100)

8.23

America

70

It

542

8.22

America

20

8.21

America

37.5

It

70

It is

28.5

8.2

America

35

It

87

8.18

It is

0.2

8.17

America

60

It

106

8.16

It is

37

America

170

It

35

8.15

America

70

8.14

It

103

8.13

America

20

It

650

It

50

8.1

America

380

It

85

It is

41.9

It

836.4

8.9

America

240

It

1300

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Pour:Up< chsdate w:st=on isrocdate=False islunardate=False day=23 month=8 year=2007>8Month23Day< chsdate/>, America1,102.5100 million3431100 million433100 million70100 million37100 million0.2100 million

" secondary debt disturbance" is the marketUnitary national radiation is to all parts of the world , values market at most since unitary market infects , from fictitious economy, deepening the real economy to western economic body have brought the increase shadow waved and is not gone to. Face the increasing proliferation of disturbance, American politician in power and the tycoon of finance and economics is if take needle felt, after a series of high end meeting is negotiated with group, Bush and Bo-Nan-Ke have transmited simultaneous to market high-sounding words to save the message of city.

Bush and Bo-Nan-Ke save city whether bring far-reaching influence steadily to American economic increase and finance? For the reply of this problem, want one to divide into 2. See from short period, Bush and Bo-Nan-Ke"Is"Attitude for American financial market , like even have in global financial market to provide timely help encouragement role, when confidence is short of generally lose background take off, government and center trip action"Final"Declare position will form for"Secondary"Further transformation

However, in for the short period of American economy and long-term tendency, Bush and Bo-Nan-Ke's save city and can not change trend to put the slow deep layer structuralness adjustment of increase route and American economy , do not be transfer with the will of government or center trip, see from this kind of meaning, though"Secondary"Is impossible"It is", but it will be unavoidable

By disturbance influence, the American market of real estate can accelerate foam shattering in market in panic, it will cause American medium and small businesses to get the financial support that strong capital restraint and lack develop comparatively fast that indirect financing and direct financing get hindrance. At the same time"Secondary"And it the possible enterprise debt problem that causes can also restrain America and even whole world takes over tide fast development, the active degree of investment bank drops , American enterprise globalization develops resistance to increase. In employment market recently having appeared to return cold background take off , it will go down if the American economy of short period increases expectation.

What is"Secondary"Do not be limitedReasonsThe AmericanHave entered depth adjustment stage,15For year, it is2007Year3Month rises2.5%Above higher level, add expectation again to seeEmployment7In month,4.6%, unemployment nature signifies by friction unemployment to the change of periodicity unemployment and structuralness unemployment that the mid-term adjustment of American economy will soon begin. 3 is biggest for consumption to be increase motive force has shown lack of power sign, disturbance causes house sales is lack of power , room price is declining , and then makeHouse mortgage2007Annual the second3.7%Drop considerably1.3%. 4It is arisen probably. Since2006Year10Month since, in American debt city has arisen the earning rate of short period to exceed completely the phenomenon of long-term earning rate that is placed upside down , always last so far annual the first quarter of the year, this major is because of market lower interest to expect to cause2007Annual the second"Secondary"Have caused capital from high risk market to the flow of low risk market, when avoid dangerous motive drive take off, many times level debt holds person to turn and purchase long-term American national debt , make its price go up , earning rate drops. At the same time, market main part unites for America to store up to reduce the expectation of breath strengthen , in investment combination to the focus transfer of the long-term asset of national debt will increase further to be placed upside down again appearance possibility. Is placed upside down increase the long-term economy in reduction on the one hand confidence, on the other hand, also reduce little overseas further to hold person increase , hold the power of American national debt, even appearing to reduce hold , weaken the long-term economic increased external capital support in America.

5 and secondary

( one) the warning

The influence of American debt crisis does not seemingly finish , but secondary debt crisis should arouse our thought and self-examination: It is first , need to know again as grading organization takes affect; It is second , need to carry out review for superintendency system; 3th need to carry out review for new accounting system; 4th need to carry out review for the risk management of financial institution; 5th how to improve asset bond to melt as well as is other to derive the message asymmetrical problem brought in product innovation process, with raising, transparency reduces market and the worry of investor for risk uncertainty; It is 6th, the superintendency authority should adopt the on the contrary economic superintendency of period measure, fluctuating fiercely with prevention and alleviation economic finance the negative influence brought.

( 2) our country

There are also American secondary debt similar feature in the current room loan market of our country, major expression when: Room loan interest rate goes constantly is high , room price lasts to rise considerably, room loan accumulated risk increase as well as the room loan risk control consciousness of commercial bank are generally absentminded to wait.

1,Interest2002Since year, center trip rises repeatedly to store loan interest rate , the room loan interest rate of our country is also the floating loan of interest rate along with when the river rises, the boat floats high, because of the absolutely most of room loans of our country, interest rate increase frequently to cause to borrow money person is hard to more and more foresee that pays the change of cash expense in the future. Therefore, once room price appearance turns on the contrary, the room loan market of our country perhaps also meeting occur such as the financial crisis of secondary debt crisis, moreover melt because of the asset bond of our country market has not established , commercial bank can not still melt through bond to scatter room loan risk , makes commercial bank occur huge loss very easily if crisis produces and produces systematic risk, harm will far exceed American secondary debt crisis, is for the impact of financial market.

2,Room price lasts to rise considerably, risk increases room loan accumulation. Since our country alters from room, the price of real estate goes rising unexpectedly in the adjusting control of government policy. Near future, room price returns when considerably general rise, and when fried room fund and bank enlargement the promotion of loan next quotations pursues month to go is high, in this year, it is former7Month,70Big-middle city house5.6%,5.3%,5.9%,5.4%,6.4%,7.1%And7.5%. In which, new merchandise7Month same6.1%,5.9%,6.0%,5.3%,6.6%,7.4%And8.1%. Therefore, the present risk of housing mortgage loan also is big therewith, if with room price income than come tolerance, housing mortgage loan also more and more has the feature of American type secondary mortgage loan undoubtedly, only, the commercial bank of our country compels in the pressure of superintendency, still ask certain head to pay proportion, this may seemingly weaken on certain degree to borrow money person the loss of promise breaking. But the fact of not allow overlook is , rises fast along with the price of real estate, the risk of housing mortgage loan is already big.

3,The room loan risk control consciousness of commercial bank is generally absentminded. In recent years, when room price continued rising and room loan asset are under the idea drive of fine asset, commercial bank has relaxed generally to examine for the human quality of loan person. According to investigation, know that according to silver prison meeting, personal housing mortgage loan is guided , the loan volume of personal mortgage loan is personal for the personal reimbursement volume per month of mortgage loan to must not exceed family month may control income50%. But actually, domestic resident and housing investor seldom have when handling housing mortgage loan to apply for person , can satisfy the most basic standard of such one, a lot of rooms loan person issues false wages income proof from lawyer office or unit. What is more serious is that partial banks for the self benefit of short period, adopt for housing according to uncover the situation extended blindly , not only violate rule have relaxed restrictions of the personal housing person market of mortgage loan to enter , also let this kind of with financial innovation for name room the personal housing mortgage loan of price rising infinity magnifies , if turn according to uncover etc.. Besides, our country still has the phenomenon of stir-frying room than many loans , magnifies credit to borrow , causes the market of real estate"It is", potential risk and harm

( 3) secondary debt

But when huge demand support takes off , secondary debt crisis short period will not affect the room loan market of our country. Following is secondary debt the enlightenment meaning for that our country does not come to put loan:

1, raising personal room loan asset

Establish and perfect individual to solicit letter system , change the credit people of commercial bank to rely on money personal proof only , personal income proof geometric ratio seeks the opinion of material than original to carry out judgment and decision-making , as well as between bank and customer, message asymmetrical realistic situation reduces the various malice supervisors who cheat behavior and have put loan vigorously to manage

Perfect personal credit is legal, reinforcement as break promise , the penalty of promise breaking, from law, ensure that bank opens the interests of the business of consumer credit. Borrow money person can not return loan principal and interest on time, bank can usually regard the estate marked as second reimbursement source. However because of Chinese law for resident residently house has safeguard clause, withdrawal real estate has legal risk and morals risk, bank asset is hard to be collected. Along with the increase of mortgage loan, this kind of problem is stressed more. Once buying room, person is unable to loan , these residential guarantees can not again transfer ownership of transfer, bank is nearly impossible to carry out ample disposal, housing mortgage exists in name only;

Normalize mortgage loan to put loan market , prevent that malignant competition is caused to mortgage loan quality decrease. In recent years, to enlarge profit level, seize market share, each domestic commercial bank encourages branch to develop housing mortgage loan business energetically one after another , reduces loan standard and assurance condition without authorization , offers consumer loan to the customer of high risk and low credit , has increased risk.

2, accelerate housing mortgage

Since Chinese housing mortgage loan bond melts , process is slow, for a long time, the fund source of grant housing mortgage loan is major to lean resident bank deposit. Therefore once long-term house high savings ratio drops , may cause bank to be faced with fund scarce danger. Since2006Beginning of the year is begun , since quotations on the stock market is fiery, plenty of deposits begin to flow to buy a share city, domestic savings ratio drops rapidly, bank grant mortgage loan possible fund scarce problem does not allow overlook. Accelerate housing mortgage loan bond to melt , publish mortgage loan bond, transfer mortgage loan investor may solve bank fund problem efficiently, and reduce risk to gather.

3, steady room price,

Room price is to influence the important factor of mortgage loan grant, also decide to borrow person borrows money scale and borrow money the crucial factor of discount, room the fluctuation meeting of price maximum influence the value of mortgage loan, steady room price is the personal important guarantee of housing credit market healthy development. Take precautions , how to should Chinese government deal with the possible housing credit crisis of appearance?

American government has adopted a series of measure and countermeasure when being faced with secondary mortgage loan crisis , has reduced market loss efficiently , has avoided that financial crisis is aggravated. These show that the reinforced room loan ability of financial crisis of handling of government is that effective control crisis affects scope , reduces room loan market furthest

The sharp weapon of harm. Through above analysis, Chinese government should adopt following measure: First, government seasonables to carve the crisis of monitoring housing mortgage loan market aggregation condition, when crisis outbreak forward put loan person and investor to send warning , reduce or stop new dangerous housing mortgage loan. In market crisis outbreak initial stage, government should come out boldly , firms market confidence , prevents that market over responds , causes crisis proliferation to other financial market fields. Secondly, government should borrow steadily, reduce its quilt bank and the mortgage withdrawal house of finance company asset with the speed that reduces withdrawal , guarantee room has steady price , also guarantees society to stabilize , prevent that crisis spreads social and political field. Moreover, organization has the financial institution of strength to bear social responsibility , purchases risk asset , had better set up really as American federal national citizen mortgages the similar governments such as loan association and federal housing mortgage loan association to support company, exists for a long time on market with balance and scatters risk.

4, government should solve domestic financial crisis efficiently using international financial market. If may ask for help and apply for urgent loan to the international financial organizations such as the organization of International Monetary Fund (IMF) or in international market will risk asset packs to auction handling.

Zong go up state , though, the secondary mortgage loan crisis of American domestic outbreak has caused panic once, but since American government adopts measure, is capable, its influence for American economy has been already been large to reduce. Pass for America government secondary mortgage loan crisis handling the research of measure, Chinese government and financial institution should mortgage loan in control housing finance risk and raising the mortgage loan ability of financial crisis of handling last further effort.

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