World bears do not take the United States and China to become enemies

" British Financial Times " chief economic commentator horse cubes, Wo Er husband( Martin Wolf) / this week, American the president Bush( George W. Bush ), meet with Chinese President Hu Jintao, this is that Chinese state leader visits America first time since 1997. As recent a important research reports , author states: " Sino-American relation concerns , is major, do not allow neglect , and is most important , do not allow erroneous judgment" *. Two countries are doomed to cooperate , problem is to how to most cooperate well.

People can not imagine a pair of country that does not match more than the United States and China: One is democratic government system, another is Wei right government system; One is the outcome of the Enlightenment, another is the most long agricultural empire of the history on world. Mutual good cooperation need to be not only imagined , still has will. Otherwise may cause another terrible out of order times. World can not absolutely let the opportunity of peaceful intercourse and prosperity slip away from finger tip, recur for 20 century the tragedy of last half leaf.

It is voluntary, lasting as sustain alone by multilateral organization , guards the cooperation of century , is so in economic field if a inter-dependent world needs. This applies to the president Bush with chairman Hu Jintao one of attention problem: Exchange rate with " whole world loses weighing apparatus ". The policy of exchange rate between and protectionism pressure malignant move mutual, is for economy open biggest threat.

A lot of Congressmen of United States Congress blame a huge sum of regular account deficit of American unceasing enlargement in China. American economy when strong expansion, and protectionism pressure has gotten restraint. But when next round of economic depression comes , can occur what? As the horse cubes of Harvard University, cost Er virtue this is level( Martin Feldstein) recent also point out so, this kind of economic depression is possible, because is the save that American family lows especially and is especially high to borrow , just maintain American interior need in the horizontal * * that offsets American huge unfavorable balance of trade enough.

Why is only feasible solving schema multilateral? Answer is the first part of to lie in economy: Global international income and expenses are multilateral in principle. Even people wrongly focusing bilateral balance, the deficit of America for Chinese Mainland also takes the 1/4 of its overall deficit only. Under global background, we discover that Chinese regular account surplus is equivalent to domestic Petroleum Exporting Countries and developed economic body approximately besides( exclude America) 2005 the 1/6 of surplus total.

The second part of answer lies in politics. Treat purely as bilateral ties if the United States and China concerns quilt, that dispute becomes power and prestige problem. " win " is to exert power, " lose " is to lose prestige. Now, America is more powerful than China. If America imposes own will in bilateral ties import the way of tariff perhaps through threatening to levy , as if its 1971 breaks to lay mines forest( Bretton Woods) exchange rate system does so, that America will make other country feel ashamed. But today, the relation of China and America and the relation of Japan and Europe and America of period of cold war are different. It has to harm a series of bilateral conflict of two big powerful countries , can destroy the working relation relied on by the tens of annual worlds in the future.

The final part of answer is , then can only first reach solving schema for challenging to reach common forgiveness. The policy negotiation of exchange rate needs the go-between of a wise honesty, it is organized that this is just International Monetary Fund (IMF)( IMF) existence purpose. It can offer credible, authoritative whole world situation analysis, the potential conflict discussion of relevant common interests of changing between large country. This is the IMF reform problem that will be in this weekend on Washington spring meeting discussed , is hard to understand , is also not less important reason.

In recently one interesting discussion, IMF chief economist pulls ancient La-Mu, Rui take ( Raghuram Rajan) point out ," when countries will supervise the foundation as constructive compromise , supervisor is just most effective" * * *. The Bush administration for world finance has no interest, as the organization reform of International Monetary Fund (IMF) is to disdain , one is attended to. This is wrong. IMF after reform can drive forward efficiently the discussion that the Bush administration needs with us.

China is still the crucial role in global international income and expenses. Last year, the regular account surplus of China is approximately 150 billion dollars. If petroleum price is more low, surplus can be more considerable. To the base of this year, the foreign exchange reserve of China( China enters city intervention energetically measure one of standard) exceeds the 100 million dollars of 10 thousand very probably. The foreign country that flows continuously in view of the scale of foreign exchange reserve of China to enter direct investment, China may have no risk land bear 50 billion dollars regular account deficit, this will make the international condition of income and expenses of China occur the change of 200 billion dollars. World needs let prudent Chinese leading layer believe that is this kind of to change ( it needs accelerate the process of upward revaluation of currency) is not only the requirement of " only superpower ", also accord with its self interests. Dynasty this direction effort, will still demonstrate China to play the role of the ability of leading role in global economic system.

The will of single country no matter is so powerful, can not also guarantee global order. Even if having no other factor, sheet is that the prominent emergence of China is also sufficient to ensure this. Multilateralism helps a channel of the world cooperation of large country, as different aspects is favorable. But to make this way be successful , so take the responsibility for the organization of supervisor, it must be credible, legal. This is why currently urgent matter is to adjust the ballot right of the organization of International Monetary Fund (IMF) considerably, as well as from acceptable global candidate, elect president.

The way of handling of global exchange rate and the discussion of macroeconomic policy, also with the global behavior way of the United States and China this larger problem relevant. Sino-American relation has no to stop the power contest let , do you ensure own interests still in more cooperative multilateral frame?

The cooperation of institutionalization may become the foundation of new-type global order, this is American leader is during the Second World War and postwar real knowledge and deep insight. During Chinese prominent emergence, this one is willing that scene is also suitable. America can also help to decide how China treats the new role of its self when considering the multilateral organization of how to reform own founding.

Face new times, America may start again